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Gold Price Forecast: Will The Yellow Metal Rally Ahead of U.S. GDP Data Release?

25 Apr,2024
Gold Price Forecast: Will The Yellow Metal Rally Ahead of U.S. GDP Data Release?

- Gold prices are showing signs of strength near the $2,330 mark, continuing their upward trajectory during the first half of Thursday's European session. This upward movement, the first in four days, is fueled by a slight weakness in the US Dollar, which traditionally boosts gold's appeal.

- A slightly cautious tone in equity markets is providing further support to the safe-haven status of gold.

- The potential upside for gold prices appears to be capped as investors await more clarity on the Federal Reserve's timeline for potential rate cuts.

- All eyes are now on the release of key US macroeconomic data, particularly the Advance Q1 GDP report scheduled for later today, followed by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index on Friday. These releases will heavily influence the direction of the US Dollar and subsequently impact gold prices.

- Investors are particularly interested in understanding when the Federal Reserve might commence its rate-cutting cycle, which has led to relatively subdued trading around gold prices for the second consecutive day.

- Expectations for the Advance US GDP report anticipate a growth rate of 2.5% for the first quarter, compared to the previous 3.4%.

- Following this, the market focus will shift to Friday's release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, a key indicator for the near-term trajectory of XAU/USD.

- Recent data such as the increase in Durable Goods Orders in March and robust US consumer inflation figures, coupled with hawkish remarks from Fed officials, reinforce the belief that the central bank may delay any rate cuts until September, thus limiting gold's gains.

- Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased slightly, contributing to a more positive global risk sentiment, which acts as a deterrent for safe-haven assets like gold.
The cautious stance of US Dollar bulls ahead of significant macroeconomic releases is providing some support to gold prices and preventing any significant downward movement.

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